David Mackay’s wife calls him a collector.
The new chairman of McGrath Estate Agents — who sits on the Woolworths board and until 2011 was chief executive of listed US giant Kellogg — counts up the homes he and wife Michelle bought working and living in different countries throughout his career.
“We have nine or 10, which is clearly too many,” says Mackay who is in the process of selling some properties in the US.
As a real estate tragic, Mackay was drawn to the chairmanship of the Sydney-based agency after being introduced by recruitment industry veteran Geoff Morgan as founder John McGrath moved into a new phase of expansion, and assesses an initial public offering for the 69-office agency.
Mackay is wary of talk of a Sydney housing bubble, noting researcher Core Logic RP Data expects price growth in the city to ease to single-digits after surging growth during which prices rose 17.6 per cent in the year to August and 76 per cent since 2009.
“Clearly, it can’t be sustained or you end up with a bubble,” he says.
“Looking at the data for the four prior years — before the last three years of acceleration — it was relatively flat.
“There was a period of underdevelopment in Australia and we are still catching up on this.”
Meanwhile, Sydney and Melbourne are being recognised on the international stage, he says.
“Like London, New York, San Francisco and Vancouver, Sydney and Melbourne are now a destination for a lot of people around the world. They are safe, clean and green, so the market in those two cities is benefiting from Asian and other investment.”
Expats will also be looking at Australian property on the back of the weaker dollar, he notes.
After two stints at Kellogg and living overseas for many years, Mackay who was born in New Zealand and grew up in the central western NSW town of Mudgee, progressively moved back to Australia after retiring in 2011, buying his new Sydney home in inner-city Walsh Bay through a McGrath agent. “You can have varying experiences with agents, and that was probably the best one I have ever had,” he says.
Mackay likes the McGrath model with its mix of company-owed offices, franchises, property management, Oxygen mortgage broking business and training services, but says it was people and culture that ultimately drew him in.
“It’s a very clear culture and a very clear set of values that have been embedded in the business. It’s a small- to medium-sized company with a massive growth aspiration, and an area of interest for me.”
After more than three years spending large chunks of time back in Australia, Mackay looks at the sharemarket and wonders why there are no major real estate agencies listed on the local bourse.
No decision has been made on an IPO for McGrath, he says, nor will he be drawn on the timing of a final decision. McGrath has already done one round of investor presentations with Bell Potter and JPMorgan on board as joint lead managers and Luminis Partners as advisers.
The Australian agency landscape is highly fragmented, Mackay says, noting McGrath has only 3 per cent of the market.
“Getting to a position of scale, like many of the publicly listed companies in the US, it hasn’t happened in Australia,” he says.
“If there is one brand that can continue to grow and change the market here, it’s McGrath.”
In the US, agency ReMax has a market value of $US444 million, while the $US5.8bn Realogy owns franchises including Century 21, Coldwell Banker and Sotheby’s International Realty.
The New York Stock Exchange is also home to commercial agents Jones Lang LaSalle capitalised at $US6.5bn and CBRE at $US10.7bn. In Australia, only LJ Hooker — now private — has flirted with a listing.
After a career in fast moving consumer goods, Mackay watches sentiment closely.
“Globally, there are a lot of worrying aspects. Consumer sentiment in Australia dropped 5 per cent in the past few months, probably because of the volatility around us.”
However, if the Chinese market stabilised and other positive indicators came through, that fall in sentiment could quickly turn, he says.
He believes Australia has been fortunate that many of the skills in mining can be transferred to the construction sector, which is now taking up the economic slack and keeping lid on unemployment.
“It’s an interesting question for Australia, the lucky country — 24 years without a recession. But it’s a double edged sword because a lot of people have never gone through a real downturn. The GFC didn’t hit Australia in any great way,” he says.
Mackay is also on the boards of major US listed companies Fortune Brands and coffee retailer Keurig Green Mountain and intends to remain on the Woolworths board for longer term.
“Maybe next year I will think about what else I might do,” he says.
This article first appeared in The Australian Business Review.