There is "significant danger" of panic and a substantial fall in capital markets during the US Federal Reserve's unwinding of its loose monetary policy, according to the Australian Centre for Financial Studies.
Policy makers should plan carefully for the possibility of substantial falls in the property market and other asset markets during the long period of unwinding of QE, Melbourne Business School fellow Sam Wylie wrote in an ACFS paper about financing business.
"Until the balance sheets of central banks, and especially the US Federal Reserve, are restored to normal there is significant danger of a panic in the capital markets," Associate Professor Wylie wrote. "The expansion of quantitative easing has inflated global asset prices. The withdrawal of quantitative easing will have the opposite effect and the effect may come suddenly."
"Policy makers should plan for how the government can provide the capital and guarantees that would be required in these circumstances to keep capital flowing to businesses," Professor Wylie warned.
He said the banking channel functions well in terms of stability, partly because of its "substantial" government support. But he said policy makers should not keep making more and more policy concessions to the largest banks, as this would damage the development of other capital channels.
He also noted an increase in investment in infrastructure, warning that in a severe financial crisis investors may sell down infrastructure funds, while those funds may also face difficulty rolling over debt.
Instead, superannuation funds should be encouraged to only invest in listed infrastructure funds, he said.