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A new perch for the eagle-eyed investor

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The unitised trading of individual residential properties, as described previously (Bringing homeowners the bacon, December 24), looks likely to cause quite a stir among private investors, if not the property market itself. 

However, there is more to this story. The company that is launching the service, DomaCom, doesn’t intend to stop there. 

It has plans for rapid growth, leading to an ASX float of its own, and to get the investments rolling it’s planning to give 10 per cent of the equity raised in its planned IPO to the investors, who have put the first $300 million into its trading platform. 

So it will look for large volumes of capital. However, CEO Arthur Naoumidis believes his firm’s trading platform will help inject life into another underperforming sector of the Australian investment landscape – private equity. 

Business leaders returning to Australia from abroad often wonder at the cultures of innovation and enterprise found in the US, UK or Israel, where ‘angel investors’ back thousands upon thousands of start-ups that just wouldn’t get off the ground here. 

How can we get more private investors to spot good ideas, back them financially, and help create jobs and profits to push Australia higher on the global competitiveness scale?

Naoumidis thinks the same ‘book building’ process that underpins his firm’s unitising of residential houses could be used to build a book on just about any start-up or under-capitalised existing business. 

That should set alarm bells ringing for the banks, whose business lending portfolios rely on them being the intermediary between saver and borrower. 

How disruptive would it be, therefore, to put savvy savers/investors in touch with start-up businesses? 

Though he didn’t say so when I visited the DomaCom office in Melbourne, Naoumidis’ business is a fairly good example of an innovative start-up. 

By remortgaging or selling their homes, and by approaching individuals who know their industry, Naoumidis and his partners raised a few million to get to work on the long regulatory slog needed to get to ASIC approval, and the IT work to build the platform itself. 

However, Naoumidis and partners had the advantage of already being well known for having previously worked on building the Praemium investment platform, which financial planners and accountants use to invest money for clients. 

But had they not been so well known, they would need a way to find private investors who understand how the investment industry works, and who would not have a problem buying a small amount of exposure to the start-up firm.

What this example illustrates is that by encouraging start-up companies to unitise early on, without a full float, the DomaCom platform has the potential to link a lot more ‘angel investors’ to innovative business ideas – particularly as a single investor can more easily, and cheaply, diversify their holdings across numerous start-ups.

This is all exciting stuff, but the DomaCom system is yet to be tested in the real world. If it proves itself with residential property, the potential is there to expand into small business funding. 

And Naoumidis and his partners, though they have signed Perpetual as the responsible entity and custodian of the assets DomaCom will manage, are aware that other corporate players will be watching. 

A ‘fast follower’ could eat their lunch if they don’t move quickly. 

Whether it’s DomaCom or a predatory fast follower who gets this platform into the hands of individual investors, the underlying principles in this project have the potential to do nothing less than transform the country.

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A platform that puts 'angel investors' in touch with start-ups could change Australian business by taking capital raising away from the bankers and giving investment power to ordinary citizens.
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Capital city home values surge

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By a staff reporter, with AAP

Capital city home values rose at their fastest pace for four years in calendar 2013, according to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index.

The index showed home values in capital cities lifted 9.8 per cent over the 12 months to December, the largest calendar year increase since 2009, when values rose 13.7 per cent.

The increase was the fastest annual rate of growth since August 2010.

House values grew at 9.9 per cent, slightly faster than unit values, which posted nine per cent growth.

In the fourth quarter, capital city home values rose by 2.8 per cent, with 6.6 per cent growth in the second half.

RP Data said growth gathered momentum through the second half of the year.

Sydney's property market was the strongest, with house values rising by 14.5 per cent in the city in 2013, pushing the city's median dwelling price to $655,250.

Perth was the second best performer, with an annual growth rate of 9.9 per cent.

Home prices in both cities are currently at record highs, up 10.9 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively, over prior peaks.

Hobart had the weakest growth, with prices rising by just 2..2 per cent, taking the median dwelling price there to $330,000 - the most affordable of all the capital cities.

RP Data senior research analyst Cameron Kusher said low interest rates increased demand for housing.

"Despite the strongest annual value growth since 2009, the rate of growth was not that startling given the low interest rate environment and the previous successive years in which home values fell," Mr Kusher said.

Home values fell 3.8 per cent in 2011, and a further 0.4 per cent in 2012, Mr Kusher said.

He said the main challenges for 2014 would likely be the impact of forecast unemployment growth, affordability constraints, and whether regulatory changes will be implemented to cool the near-record high levels of investor activity.

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Prices lift at fastest pace for four years in CY2013: RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index.
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The Middle Kingdom’s Australian frontier

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Graph for The Middle Kingdom’s Australian frontier

Start to prepare for a new era in the Australian Chinese relationship. For the last couple of decades every time we thought of China we have tended to examine trends in demand for iron ore, coal and gas. The enormous demand by Chinese for these base commodities has underpinned government revenue and that of our miners.

Chinese demand is not going to go away but all the signs are that in coal, and perhaps gas, the rate of demand growth will at best be subdued. Iron ore might be stronger, although there are big increases in global capacity on the horizon.

But well within five years, instead of simply looking at Chinese manufacturing, Australia will look at the tourist bookings. We are going to see a very big rise in Chinese tourism. The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) projects the number of Chinese travellers to Australia and New Zealand will soar from 910,000 trips in 2012 to 2.2 million in 2020 – just six years away.

This rise will cause almost a doubling of the ratio of Chinese travellers to inbound tourists from 16 to 28 per cent. And it doesn’t stop there.

BCG expects the number of inbound trips from China to Australia to grow at an incredible nine per cent per annum between 2012 and 2030. BCG is more bullish than the Australian Tourism Research Group which is forecasting a compounding growth rate of 6.4 per cent.

Growth rates of between six and nine per cent annually are going to require growth in infrastructure and I don’t think we are properly prepared for it.

The new China relationship goes even deeper because they are now aggressively buying our real estate, particularly in capital city markets of Melbourne and Sydney. Perhaps they understand the implications of the tourism boom better than we do. There are two other forces driving the Chinese to send money abroad. First they are being encouraged by the Chinese government to spend abroad but even more importantly, the prosecution and jailing of Bo Xilai and his supporters has created feeling of insecurity among many people in China. If such an important person can be brought down by the current leadership who else is vulnerable?

The understandable reaction is to make sure you have the ability to reside in a country like Australia. The combination of all these forces means we have a lot of activity ahead of us (Chinese buyers tower over Australian real estate, December 6).

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Australia is unprepared for a big influx in Chinese visitors, both as tourists and investors.
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Westfield split a hard sell: report

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The split of Westfield's international and domestic operations will enter crucial territory in coming weeks as the Lowy family and senior Westfield executives look to sell the deal to "hostile" investors, The Australian Financial Review reports.

According to the newspaper, several large institutional investors are in disagreement with the Lowy's over the value of the proposed offer and are threatening to vote against it.

To proceed, 75 per cent of security holders are required to support the proposal.

The AFR reports the way in which the offer has been calculated is the key concern among investors, with speculation mounting as to whether the Lowy family will "sweeten" the deal.

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Lowy family facing hostile reception from investors over proposal.
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Sydney to avoid house bubble

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House price growth in Sydney is expected to moderate in 2014 with the risk of a bubble forming downplayed by economists and the housing sector, according to The Australian Financial Review.

The chief economist of the Housing Industry Association, Harley Dale, admitted the double-digit price growth of 2013 would be unsustainable, but he expects more “reasonable” growth in 2014.

“We certainly don’t want to be in a situation in January next year where we are again talking about another year of 15 per cent price growth,” he told the AFR.

Mr Dale said it was crucial the 2013 recovery in new dwelling construction continued into 2014 to ensure price growth could be kept at a sustainable level.

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Price growth seen moderating, recovery in new dwelling construction: report.
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GPT lifts CPA voting power

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By a staff reporter, with AAP

GPT Group Ltd has increased its substantial holding in Commonwealth Property Office Fund Ltd (CPA), despite CPA advising its shareholders to reject GPT's takeover bid just before Christmas.

In a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange, GPT disclosed its voting power in CPA has increased to 11.44 per cent to 7.97 per cent.

On Christmas Eve, Commonwealth Managed Investments Ltd's (CMIL's) independent directors, acting on behalf of CPA, unanimously recommended its shareholders reject GPT's offer in favour of a rival bid from Dexus Property Group Ltd and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.

GPT Group made an off-market offer of 0.141 GPT shares for all CPA shares, and 75.3525 cents – reduced by the amount of any distribution paid on a CPA unit – on November 19.

The rival, sweetened bid from Dexus and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board is valued at $1.27 per CPA unit, including a cash payment of 77.45 cents and 0.4516 Dexus stapled securities.

Dexus takeover offer for CPA now open

Earlier today, the Dexus-CPPIB consortium announced that it had started mailing its bidder's statement to CPA unitholders.

"Accordingly, the Dexus offer (Dexus-CPPIB offer) is now open for acceptance," Dexus said in a statement.

Under the Dexus-CPPIB offer, CPA unitholders will be entitled to retain the CPA distribution for the six months ended December 31, 2013, which is estimated to be 3.5 cents per CPA unit and payable in February 2014.

The consortium's offer has no minimum acceptance condition and is scheduled to close on February 7, 2014.

CMIL has said the Dexus offer is superior to the GPT offer.

In its target's statement in response to the GPT offer, CMIL valued the Dexus offer at $1.246 per CPA unit and the GPT offer at $1.203, based on the prices of Dexus and GPT securities on December 20, 2013.

CPA invests in prime quality office property in central business districts and major suburban markets across Australia.

CPA holds 25 assets worth about $3.9 billion in total.

CPA is externally managed by CMIL, which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Commonwealth Bank.

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Suitor increases voting shares after CPA spurns takeover deal.
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Foreign demand tipped to push house prices higher

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AAP

Expats and foreign investors could push residential property prices even higher this year as the falling Australian dollar prompts offshore buyers to enter the market.

A combination of low interest rates, a weaker local currency and surging house prices in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth might set off another wave of buying in Australia's major cities over the coming months, CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian says.

"Australia's starting to look a lot more attractive from a foreign investment perspective with the falling currency and that will probably show up more in the property market than anywhere else," Mr Sebastian told AAP.

"It will be more prevalent, especially with an improving global risk appetite."

He said foreign demand for Australian property was unlikely to wane, but it would take some time for enough new supply to come online.

RP Data figures released last week show that Australian home prices jumped almost 10 per cent in 2013, with house values in Sydney rising almost 15 per cent, followed by Perth with an annual growth rate of 9.9 per cent.

Since April last year, the Australian dollar has fallen 14 per cent to around 89.5 US cents.

Mr Sebastian said that once rental yields were factored in, Sydney house prices were returning up to 20 per cent.

"I don't think the Reserve Bank would like to see a recurrence of that over 2014," he said.

While it was too early for the central bank to begin lifting rates, there were signs that longer-term rates would rise following a boost in house prices.

There was now a perception that interest rates had reached a low point, with longer-term rates lifting over the past six weeks.

"There's a clear indication that we're getting close to the lows and, if anything, rates will start to lift in 12 months time," he said.

Borrowers were beginning to factor in rate rises, with around 17 to 18 per cent of people choosing fixed housing loans.

Still, mortgage brokers such as Mortgage Choice have reported increased demand for fixed home loans in December, with 33 per cent of applicants securing a fixed product compared to 30 per cent in the previous month.

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Falling Australian dollar and low interest rates could see increased interest from offshore investors.
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Dexus nears CPA win

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Dexus Property Group and partner the giant Canada Pension Plan Investment Board appear to have won the battle for the $4 billion Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA), with rival GPT Group to walk away with a cache of properties worth $1.2 billion.

Both Dexus and GPT announced they had struck a memorandum of understanding last night after the sharemarket had closed.

The battle for CPA was hard fought with the winner to become one of the country's biggest office-tower landlords.

Under the revised offer, Dexus and CPPIB have put more cash on the table, and lowered the script component of their bid.

GPT gets four office buildings for $679 million: a half stake of 10 Shelley Street in Sydney, and 750 Collins Street, 655 Collins Street, and a half share of 2 Southbank Boulevard in Melbourne.

Also, GPT's wholesale shopping centre fund can buy 50 per cent of Northland Shopping Centre in Melbourne for $505 million from CPPIB.

In October, Dexus teamed up with one of the world's largest pension funds to launch the $2.7 billion hostile takeover bid for CPA.

The following month, GPT pitched a surprise cash-and-scrip play for CPA aimed at boosting its earnings and super-charging its ambitions to build up a $10 billion funds management empire.

While GPT does not win the entire CPA under the latest proposal, it does carve out a chunk of office towers.

Last year, Dexus/CPPIB offered two CPA office buildings -- 750 Collins Street and the half share in 2 Southbank Boulevard -- to GPT's wholesale office fund if the partners won 100 per cent of the units in CPA.

Dexus yesterday said the new bid equated to $1.272 a CPA share including the distribution, compared with its earlier offer of $1.27.

The company said the asset sales had allowed it to increase the cash component to 84.96 cents plus 0.3801 Dexus securities. Its earlier offer was 77.45 cents and 0.4516 Dexus securities.

Dexus also said it had posted out its bidder's statement, opening the offer for acceptances, with the offer to close on February 7.

The acquisitions are subject to a number of conditions, including Foreign Investment Review Board approval and due diligence, and are structured under a put and call option that terminates the deal if not exercised by September.

The acquisitions also depend on Dexus reaching compulsory acquisition in its CPA bid.

However, GPT has left its $3 billion bid for CPA open until January 24.

Dexus and GPT declined to comment further last night.

CPA owns 26 office properties and is run by Commonwealth Bank subsidiary Colonial First State Global Asset Management.

The takeover bid followed confirmation by Commonwealth Bank that it wanted to cut ties with its $20 billion property business.

In December, the independent directors of CPA rejected a $3 billion takeover bid from GPT Group in favour of a higher bid from Dexus and CPPIB.

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Deal with GPT likely to pave way for takeover of office fund.
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Homeowners lock in rates

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By a staff reporter

Demand for fixed rate home loans has surged to levels last seen five years ago as borrowers look to capitalise on a record low cash rate.

The latest figures from mortgage broker Mortgage Choice show demand for fixed rate home loans lifted to 33.1 per cent in December, up from 30.6 per cent in November. Such numbers haven’t been seen since March 2008.

While several economists still expect another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia in coming months, talk of rates again being lifted by the end of 2014 appears to have many confident now is the time to lock in the current rates on offer.

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Data show borrowers keen on fixed rates as cash rate sits at record low.
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The rewards of a pragmatic GPT-Dexus truce

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Having put in place a rather attractive consolation prize, what will GPT Group’s Michael Cameron do next?

On Monday evening, GPT and its rival bidder for Commonwealth Office Property, the Dexus/Canada Pension Plan Investment Board grouping, announced they had entered binding memoranda of understandings over the potential sale of five assets by Dexus and CPPIB to the GPT Wholesale Office Fund should the Dexus-led bid for CPA succeed.

Should all the asset sales proceed, GWOF would outlay almost $1.2 billion to buy the properties.

The deal doesn’t preclude GPT continuing with its own bid for CPA, nor increasing it. GPT gate-crashed the original $2.8 billion Dexus/CPPIB bid for CPA in November with a $3 billion offer of its own, forcing the partnership to respond by slightly increasing its offer and altering the terms to inject more cash and reduce the scrip component.

GPT, with an 11.44 per cent interest in CPA, could have – and could still – counter that move with an increased offer of its own. With the Dexus/CPPIB valuation of CPA already regarded as very full and any increase in GPT’s bid probably requiring more cash, however, there would be a significant risk of GPT over-paying.

That risk would be compounded by the fact that GPT’s securities are trading at a material discount to their asset backing. It would make little sense to significantly dilute its own security holders in order to pay an over-the-top price including a takeover premium for CPA.

While much has been made of the need for Cameron to pull off a successful transaction after trying unsuccessfully to land a couple of deals last year, GPT’s brush with disaster last decade – its big, highly-leveraged and ill-fated joint venture with Babcock & Brown – is scorched into its corporate memory.

Cameron, brought in to clean up that mess and restore the group to its former blue-chip status, isn’t likely to be keen on relinquishing the group’s restored reputation for financial discipline. The most likely outcome is that he’ll take an attractive second prize and allow Dexus and CPPIB to acquire CPA.

It wouldn’t be a bad outcome for GPT. Under its existing bid it would outlay about $4 billion in cash and shares to fund the bid for CPA, including GWOF’s borrowings to acquire $1.1 billion of properties from it if the bid succeeded.

If it departs the CPA scene GWOF would still acquire a similar amount of assets, increasing GPT’s funds under management without impacting GPT’s own balance sheet or the $3 billion of firepower it was prepared to devote to CPA. With one of its major rivals for office properties on the sidelines until Dexus has digested CPA, it would still be able to pursue any opportunities that emerge within a sector that is being re-shaped.

Cameron’s strategy is based on total returns and includes an objective of lifting GPT’s funds under management from about $7.2 billion to $17 billion over the next few years. The GWOF transactions, if all were completed, would add significantly to the surge of organic growth already occurring as GPT seeks to lift the “active” component of its earnings to about 10 per cent and leverage its returns on equity.

It wouldn’t be the big prize, but it wouldn’t be a bad outcome.

For Dexus and CPPIB, the deal may not completely remove GPT from the scene but it makes its departure far more likely and, should they achieve the 90 per cent ownership level at which the deals with GWOF come alive, reduce their own funding requirements. Four of the assets are currently owned by CPA and one – 50 per cent of the Northland retail centre in Victoria – by CPPIB.

The apparent truce between the bidders would, if it plays out as expected, represent a very sensible and pragmatic compromise in circumstances – contested bid situations – where common sense doesn’t necessarily usually prevail.

The “winner-takes-all” approach that normally prevails generally creates two losers – a “successful” bidder that pays more than it should have and the ‘”loser” who misses out entirely.

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If it plays out as planned, the agreement between GPT and the Dexus-CPPIB consortium for CPA should see both parties walk away satisfied, and would allow GPT to still pursue any opportunities that emerge within the sector.
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GPT eyes new target

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GPT Group is likely to turn its attention to another target after this week striking a deal to carve off nearly $1.2 billion of property in the battle for Commonwealth Property Office Fund, according to market sources.

There was speculation yesterday the $1.97 billion Investa Office Fund would be a good fit for GPT with IOF shares closing up 8 cents to $3.21 in trading yesterday.

On Monday night, Dexus Property Group and partner Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and rival GPT announced GPT could buy four Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA) office towers for $679 million if Dexus wins its $3 billion takeover bid for the office landlord. CPPIB may also sell its half-share in Northland shopping centre in Melbourne to GPT for $505 million. The properties would be owned by GPT's wholesale office and shopping centre funds.

Under the revised offer, Dexus and CPPIB have put more cash on the table, and lowered the script component of their bid.

Winston Sammut, managing director of fund manager Maxim Asset Management, said the deal saved face for both sides with GPT getting some assets and Dexus/CPPIB the grand prize.

He noted that the bid price for CPA was becoming expensive, being in line with CPA's share price of $1.23 and above its net tangible assets of $1.19.

"GPT has the capacity to spend more and brokers today have raised Investa as a potential target, though not immediately," Mr Sammut said.

He did note that investment bankers might be "talking their own book". Investa Office Fund had been trading at a 5 to 10 per cent discount to its $3.25 NTA over the past month, he said.

Phoenix Portfolios managing director Stuart Cartledge said both Dexus and GPT shares had traded up yesterday following the announcement, while CPA shares were flat, reflecting that the market was no longer prepared to pay a premium for CPA on the expectation of a higher bid.

"Two days ago I would have expected a higher bid, but Dexus has put GPT in a difficult place," Mr Cartledge said.

If GPT were to increase its bid, it risked paying too much, while it would also lose Northland as the acquisition was subject to Dexus winning CPA, he said.

CLSA analyst John Kim said a higher bid from GPT should not be ruled out. GPT had still been accumulating shares in CPA and announced on Monday it had increased its stake to 11.4 per cent, nor had it formally withdrawn its offer, he said.

GPT said on Monday that its bid for CPA remained open until January 24, while Dexus's offer closes on February 7.

Mr Kim said GPT's announcement on Monday was more likely driven by its fiduciary duty as manager of its two wholesale funds, which will buy the office towers and shopping centre.

GPT last year withdrew from a number a takeover tilts, with the group bidding on Australand's office and industrial division for $2.94 billion.

It was also reported to have made an offer for Lend Lease's unlisted industrial fund. The bid for CPA is GPT's third attempt to grow its assets.

In October, GPT chief executive Michael Cameron said he wanted to increase the group's funds under management by $10 billion, but did not set a timeframe, saying the key target was a minimum 9 per cent annual growth in total return.

In October, Dexus teamed up with CPPIB, one of the world's largest pension funds, to launch an initial $2.7 billion hostile takeover bid for CPA.

The following month, GPT pitched its surprise cash-and-scrip play.

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Property group likely to pursue new acquisitions after CPA deal.
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Triguboff eyes Melbourne expansion

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Rich lister Harry Triguboff is looking to grow his serviced apartment chain through the purchase of its first site in Melbourne, according to The Australian.

Mr Triguboff said his company, Meriton Group, was planning to acquire sites with enough space for 500 to 1000 apartments.

"I have serviced apartments in Sydney, Brisbane and the Gold Coast, this (a Melbourne property) would make a network," he told The Australian.

The property developer is hoping business and leisure travellers will appreciate the option to stick to one brand of serviced apartments along the east coast.

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Property developer looks to bring Meriton brand to Victorian capital: report.
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WRT investors say split costs $1.5 bln too much

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Institutional investors in Westfield Retail Trust calculate that they are overpaying by $1 billion to $1.5 billion under a current restructure proposal and want the Lowy family to adjust the ratio on the split of their shopping centre empire.

One fund manager with a significant holding in WRT says the current ratio of 0.918 Westfield Group shares per WRT unit would see investors pay about $3.5 billion for the empire’s property management business on an unusually high EBIT multiple.

 “The deal is a negative for WRT shareholders. They need to adjust the merger ratio to move the deal into at least neutral territory,” one institutional shareholder said. The Lowy’s move to split Westfield’s international and domestic operations transfers 5 to 10 cents a share from WRT to Westfield Group, he said.

Westfield Group, which contains the international portfolio of centres, will be renamed Westfield Corporation. It will have total assets of $US17.6 billion in the US, UK and Europe and a $US9 billion development pipeline.

The separation will see Westfield Group’s Australasian business demerged and then packaged with Westfield Retail Trust, with Westfield Retail securityholders receiving $850 million in through a capital return and an aggregate 51.4 per cent of the new entity, to be called Scentre Group. The $850 million capital return is equivalent to a pro rata buyback of Westfield Retail Trust securities at $3.47 per security.

The $3.5 billion price tag on Westfield’s property management business implies a multiple of about 19.5 times EBIT – a far cry from splits seen as comparable, like the 10 times earnings multiple for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia's planned spin-off of the CFS Retail Property Trust.

“On the current merger ratio it appears they (WRT investors) are paying $1 billion to $1.5 billion too much, an EBIT multiple of even 12 times would value the property management business at $2.1 to $2.2 billion,” an institutional WRT shareholder said.

Westfield Group securityholders will get securities in the new Westfield Corp on a 1:1 basis as well as 1.246 Scentre securities for every Westfield Group security held.

Institutional WRT security holders are calling for the ratio to be put at or near parity for the deal, saying the Lowy family will be fighting a rear-guard action as they attempt to muster up the 75 per cent shareholder approval needed ahead of a vote in May. 

Westfield Retail Trust will be the largest Australian REIT listed on the ASX, accounting for roughly 15 per cent of the sector. It will have $28.5 billion in assets. Frank Lowy will remain chairman of both operations.

Last year the Lowys sold their own stake in Westfield Retail for about $660 million.

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Institutional investors in Westfield Retail Trust want as much as $1.5 billion sliced from the cost of the proposed split of the Lowy family international and domestic shopping centre empires.
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Housing finance beats forecasts in November

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By a staff reporter, with AAP

The demand for home loans rose slightly more than expected in November, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The data showed the number of home loans granted in November rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1 per cent to 52,912.

Bloomberg had expected the number of housing finance commitments to lift by one per cent in the month.

Total housing finance by value rose 1.7 per cent in November, seasonally adjusted, to $26.934 billion.

The rise in home loan approvals means there won't be another interest rate cut, an economist says.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Michael Blythe says it means the Reserve Bank of Australia won't cut the cash rate again during this cycle.

"We think they're done because those interest rate sensitive parts like housing, as we've seen today, are moving," he said.

"You don't need any more help from that perspective and the sectors that do still need help would benefit more from a lower currency."

Mr Blythe said interest rates were likely to rise, from a record low of 2.5 per cent, in late 2014 as a weakening Australian dollar added to inflationary pressures.

National Australia Bank senior economist Spiros Papadopoulos said that although the housing market was strengthening, it would not be enough to rebalance the economy as the mining investment boom winds down.

Unemployment would continue to rise, meaning the Reserve Bank of Australia would be unlikely to raise the cash rate this year, he said.

"This is another indicator that points to the strength in the housing market, alongside rising house prices the upward trend in building approvals that we've seen in recent times," Mr Papadopoulos said.

"We think there's still going to be a hole left in the investment outlook and although the housing and construction part of the equation will be supporting growth, the other non-mining sectors will still be quite soft and not strong enough to offset the mining slowdown.

"We don't think it's going to be enough overall, which is why we think the unemployment rate is going to head higher and why the RBA won't be in a position to raise rates this year."

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Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows number of home loans granted in month rose slightly more than expected.
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GPT rules out lifting CPA bid

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By a staff reporter

GPT Group Ltd has ruled out increasing its off-market takeover offer for Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA), in a development that will likely see it bow out of the ongoing takeover battle.

In a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange, GPT chief executive officer and  managing director Michael Cameron said the decision not to increase the consideration under the offer followed careful assessment of the competing proposal for CPA, and reflected a continued focus on GPT’s strategic priorities.

GPT said the offer remains open for acceptances until January 24, but it will not be extended beyond that date.

Late last year, Commonwealth Managed Investments Ltd's (CMIL's) independent directors, acting on behalf of CPA, unanimously recommended its shareholders reject GPT's offer in favour of a rival bid from Dexus Property Group Ltd and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.

GPT Group made an off-market offer of 0.141 GPT shares for all CPA shares, and 75.3525 cents – reduced by the amount of any distribution paid on a CPA unit – on November 19.

The rival, sweetened bid from Dexus and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board is valued at $1.27 per CPA unit, including a cash payment of 77.45 cents and 0.4516 Dexus stapled securities.

GPT said in the event that GPT's bid does not progress, previously received acceptances will be void.

Mr Cameron said the most important thing GPT can do is effectively allocate capital in order to generate the strongest possible total return over time for GPT securityholders.

"Achieving this objective requires GPT to make the correct decisions about sector allocations, when to buy and sell assets within the portfolio, and importantly not overpaying for assets," he said.

"It also means issuing or buying back equity when value can be created for securityholders, and not relying on increasing debt in a low interest rate environment to enhance short term earnings at the expense of long term total return.”

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Group says it will not increase consideration under its off-market takeover offer for CPA, returns focus to strategic priorities.
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REA buys tenancy service

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Real estate classified service REA Group Ltd has acquired a rental application service for $15 million.

In a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange, the group that owns realestate.com.au and realcommercial.com.au said it has acquired 1Form Online Pty Ltd, operator of online tenancy application service 1Form.com.

The target was established in Melbourne in 2006 and has 2.3 million registered tenants.

The 1Form.com service has been available on realestate.com.au free of charge since 2011 and REA said it intends to eliminate the annual application management and storage fee for all consumers.

REA Group CEO Greg Ellis said the acquisition is in line with the group's strategy to connect consumers with property-related services.

"1Form.com has successfully employed digital expertise to improve the property experience," Mr Ellis said.

"1Form.com supports our stated strategy to connect people with the practical services they need."

After the acquisition REA Group will continue to provide the 1Form.com service to real estate agency websites in Australia and New Zealand.

Mr Ellis last month announced his resignation from REA Group, saying he would remain in the role until a successor was appointed.

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Real estate classified group buys application service 1Form for $15m.
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GPT quits CPA race

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GPT Group will seek out new targets across the Australian property landscape after yesterday choosing to walk away from its surprise takeover play for the Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA) with $1.2 billion worth of office and retail property assets in hand.

Dexus Property Group and partner Canada Pension Plan Investment Board yesterday emerged as victors in the drawn-out battle for the CPA, and they will take the bulk of the trust's $4 billion office property portfolio after sweetening their bid and offloading four office assets and an interest in a shopping centre to GPT's unlisted fund.

GPT ended a week of speculation by firmly ruling out a lift to its takeover offer for the Commonwealth Bank-managed office fund, with chief executive Michael Cameron defending the pullback, which comes after earlier unsuccessful tilts at Australand Property Group's office and industrial business and Lend Lease's industrial property fund.

"We don't see this or any other transaction that we choose not to proceed with as a failed bid. The most important thing for GPT is to properly allocate capital to generate the strongest possible total returns for security holders," he said.

Mr Cameron insisted that the group still had opportunities to grow its business through either acquisition or development, and would remain focused on targeting opportunities that generate the strongest possible total returns for investors.

GPT will walk away with a $1.2 billion lift in funds under management and analysts are now focused on the prospect of GPT switching on a buyback in the wake of its full-year results rather than more takeover action.

Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Rich said: "For a company that's focused on the allocation of capital, they were using their scrip in order to buy CPA at a premium -- having missed out on that, it makes sense to use the same firepower to buy back their own stock at a discount."

Hedge funds had driven down GPT's security price but it recovered after the split-up deal with the Dexus consortium emerged last week. GPT securities closed down 1 cent at $3.59 and Dexus lost 1.5 cents to close at $1.025 on a weak day. Goldman Sachs traders said they were surprised that GPT had not traded back up to $3.70 and noted that the group's management had shown very good financial discipline in not overbidding for CPA.

The traders suggested that Investa Office Fund could be next merger target but analysts cautioned that GPT had effectively bid up the prices of office trusts with its play for CPA.

The Dexus consortium's takeover also highlighted the influence of deep pocketed capital partners that many A-REITs have attracted. "The players who have access to third-party capital from sovereign wealth and global pension funds are well positioned in a competitive market for direct assets," Credit Suisse's Mr Rich said. But it is not leading to over-exuberance in the sector.

Antares Equities fund manager Brett McNeill said: "I think it's a positive for the sector; it's avoided an unnecessary, over-the-top bidding war, which it was starting to head towards. It's another example of the sector's much improved discipline compared to pre-GFC -- I am not sure that this sensible outcome would have been achieved in those days."

Mr Cameron also flagged a cautious stance on taking on leverage at this point in the property cycle. "It also means issuing or buying back equity when value can be created for security holders, and not relying on increasing debt in a low-interest-rate environment to enhance short-term earnings at the expense of long-term total return," he said.

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Dexus wins battle for control of Commonwealth's office landlord.

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Blowing down 'as safe as houses'

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Graph for Blowing down 'as safe as houses'

Investor activity continues to drive the housing market. But is Australian housing a good investment? Not if the past decade is any indication.

The value of housing loan approvals rose by 1.5 per cent in November, following two consecutive months of 7 per cent growth, to be 35 per cent higher over the year. I discussed housing loans in detail on Monday, but today the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the state breakdown for investor activity (The housing boom is on borrowed time, January 13).

In New South Wales, the value of investor activity has climbed by 46 per cent over the year to November and is 33 per cent higher annually. Investor activity continues to be strongest in New South Wales, which has been the hotspot for speculative investment since lending rates hit record lows.

New South Wales accounted for around 45 per cent of all investor activity in November. The graph below shows the ratio of New South Wales investor activity to the rest of Australia. A ratio of 1.0 would indicate that investor activity is equal in New South Wales and the rest of Australia.


Graph for Blowing down 'as safe as houses'

Although investor activity is undeniably strong in New South Wales, it is hardly without precedent. Investor activity was much stronger during the early part of the decade when investors had little interest in the other states. But investor activity is the strongest it has been in almost a decade – around the time when real house prices in Sydney effectively stalled.

What is different is that the surge in investor activity has come without much interest from the bottom of the market. First home buyer activity has never been weaker, particularly in New South Wales.

The ratio of investor activity to first home buyer activity is at an extremely high level in New South Wales and we really have only one previous episode that comes close. That episode was marked by what has become a decade long correction in Sydney real house prices that saw almost no price growth over that period.

Could that happen again? Perhaps, though perhaps the rules have also changed a bit since 2004. We hear a lot of talk about foreign investors and self-managed super funds speculating in the market and that may have led to a change in market dynamics. But generally if something looks as unusual as the New South Wales line does in the graph below, then the sustainability of that situation should be questioned.


Graph for Blowing down 'as safe as houses'

Investors have been active in the other states, albeit to different extents.

In Victoria and Western Australia, investor activity has been quite strong, but first home buyers are far more active in Western Australian than in Victoria. Despite elevated house prices, the younger generation in Western Australia have benefited from a raft of relatively low skilled but high paying jobs throughout the mining boom.

In Queensland, investor activity has been relatively muted during 2013. However, it appears as though that has changed in the past three months with activity now 25 per cent higher over the year to November (though only 10 per cent higher in 2013 as a whole).

Activity in South Australia, whether of the investor or the first home buyer variety, has been fairly weak.

As it stands right now, investors are the major driving force in the housing market. In New South Wales we are seeing activity from investors and first home buyers that is historically unusual and unlikely to persist for a lengthy period. It is one of several reasons why the current level of house price growth in Sydney is unsustainable.

Some will question the importance of first home buyers to the market. But the housing market constantly needs new sources of demand to increase competition and drive prices. New demand is driven by new investors or by first home buyers. The latter is nowhere to be seen, so the obvious question is whether Australian housing is a good investment.

Prices are high relative to most countries and housing hasn’t provided a great return on your investment over the past decade. If you invested in Sydney housing a decade ago, you would only now be making a real return. Money in the bank would have been a better investment than Sydney housing since 2004.

For foreign investors, there will surely be better opportunities for housing investment than in Australia. They will realise this in due course. Right now they may make a quick return and the market may even prove buoyant enough to prove Alan Kohler right (Will the dollar fall and property rise? Yes, yes; January 15).

But it's more likely that this upward swing is no different from the last few that resulted in significant price corrections. We can't be too confident in a market that is being driven by the most skittish of property buyers.

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An investing frenzy has buoyed house prices in some states but without first home buyers to prop up the market, foreign buyers will chase better opportunities elsewhere.

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Property confidence at record high

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The confidence level of the nation’s property industry has hit a fresh high as the sector expects to benefit from strong house price growth, a new survey has found.

The Property Council/ANZ Property Industry Confidence Index to March 2014 finds property industry confidence has climbed to 140 points, up eight points since the December survey. The uptick in confidence was driven mainly by New South Wales and Queensland.

The quarterly survey found capital growth was likely to rise in all asset classes, with the residential sector seen as the big winner. The level of new construction activity is also tipped to rise.

Peter Verwer, Property Council of Australia Chief Executive, said the expectations for the March quarter were for broad-based gains, with no state or territory left out.

“Positive expectations about house price growth and significant expected increases in residential construction activity across the nation are driving a strong upturn in confidence for the property industry,” he said.

“The industry has been buoyed by strong staffing level increases across the nation over the last three months and is confident of further increases in staff hiring over the next 12 months."

Mr Verwer said he expected the property sector to play a major role in filling the void left in the economy by a deflation of the mining boom.

“The message from Australia’s largest business confidence survey is that it is property and construction, the industry that employs more people and contributes more to GDP than any other, that will lead the way to future prosperity,” he said.

ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan said the property sector was a rare positive story amid a flagging economy, with the latest expectations doing little to alter the view that economic growth will be below trend in the near-term.

“Outside the property sector, the improvement in business sentiment has been tentative and the near-term outlook for the Australian economy remains subdued. Mining investment is winding down from unsustainable highs and the public sector will likely detract from growth in the near-term,” he said.

“Hence, despite a solid recovery in the property sector, ANZ expects that Australia will experience below-trend growth over the next 12-18 months.”

Mr Hogan added that the country was set for “an extended period of low interest rates,” which the real estate sector expects to again be beneficial in 2014.

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House prices tipped to rise, industry confidence hits fresh highs: survey.

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Aveo plans $500 mln asset sales

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Listed property and aged-care developer Aveo Group is preparing to put about $500 million in residential and office assets on the market this year as it moves to become a pure-play retirement group, according to industry sources.

Aveo Group, which changed its name from FKP Property Group last month, will look to divest the bulk of its residential community assets and sub-divisions this year. 

The assets are expected to sell at or above book value, with skyrocketing property prices helping its sales case. As at June 30, Aveo had $767 million in non-retirement assets and has divested about $15 million in properties since.

Aveo, which has a market capitalisation of about $1.1 billion, is pushing to divest non-retirement assets in the hope of becoming a pure play company by 2016. Strong interest was expected to come from the residential REIT sector.

Some of the first assets to be sold could be Aveo Group’s gasworks office complex in Brisbane and the last of its Luxe residential apartments in Sydney's Woolloomooloo.

In the 2013 fiscal year Aveo Group booked a $166.5 million loss, largely on the back of development impairments. Stockland exited Aveo Group in October when it sold its remaining 11.6 per cent stake for $103.5 million.

Aveo Group is trading about 30 per cent below net tangible assets, which one fund manager attributes largely to the fragmented nature of the retirement group sector and the absence of pure-play offerings.

Last year, Aveo Group sold its 38 per cent stake in New Zealand retirement home operator Metlife for NZ$280 million, which it used to pay down the debt on one of the retirement funds it manages. Aveo Group closed at $2.20 today.

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The listed property and aged-care developer's assets are expected to sell at or above book value, with skyrocketing property prices helping its sales case.

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